Strategies

Two rule-based baskets built from the same four box scores every stock carries — what they'd hold today, and how the rule has done over the last five years.

Must clear the 75th percentile — top 25% of the universe — on Market Beat, Trend Persistence, Business Growth AND Money Flow all at once. A demanding, all-four screen; ranked by Compound Score and capped at the basket size.

How the current picks are doing

15 names · equal-weighted · live, independent of the weekly re-bake below.

Picks · 1 Week
−5.8%
SPY · 1 Week
−1.4%
Picks · 1 Month
−14.7%
SPY · 1 Month
−0.3%

This month’s basket

Locked May 29, 2026 · 15 names · equal-weight · tracked daily through June 18, 2026. Updates when the next month begins.

Basket · MTD
+6.3%
SPY · MTD
−1.6%
Up / down
9 / 6
Leader · MRVL
+41.5%
Laggard · CIEN
−24.8%
Day by day · basket vs SPY
The 15picks · lock-in scores & month-to-date
StockPerformPersistProfitFlowMTD
MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc.979683100+41.5%
WDCWestern Digital Corporation1001009097+36.6%
SNDKSandisk Corporation1001007997+24.0%
LRCXLam Research Corporation98989484+22.7%
STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc99989899+16.2%
GLWCorning Incorporated97949489+10.3%
FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc.98869879+10.0%
MUMicron Technology, Inc.999910094+9.5%
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc.98999598+5.3%
NUENucor Corporation959076100−3.0%
NEMNewmont Corporation93949975−4.1%
DELLDell Technologies Inc.978686100−12.1%
FSLRFirst Solar, Inc.92909396−14.9%
APPAppLovin Corporation85909890−23.5%
CIENCiena Corporation99999595−24.8%

The 5-year track record

Every ~monthly anchor over the last 5 years — equal-weight, rebalanced, against SPY.

TOP 25% ON Market Beat · Trend Persistence · Business Growth · Money Flow · capped at 15 · equal-weight · vs SPY.

Picks · 65 mo
+354.9%
SPY · same
+79.0%
Excess (cum)
+276 pp
CAGR
+35.5%
Sharpe
1.07
Max drawdown
−47.5%
Calmar
0.75
Volatility (ann.)
+34.3%
Win rate vs SPY
65%
Turnover / rebalance
86%

Cumulative growth — $1 in the basket vs SPY

PicksSPY

Monthly returns — basket vs SPY

PicksSPY

Quarterly returns — basket vs SPY

The same backtest, bucketed by calendar quarter instead of ~monthly anchor.

What an ATR stop-loss would have changed

Same basket, same anchors — the only change is a trailing chandelier stop: exit early if a name closes more than 2× or 3× its entry-day ATR below its peak-since-entry close.

VariantCum. returnCAGRSharpeMax DDCalmarWin rateStop rate
No stop· shown above+354.9%+35.5%1.07−47.5%0.7565%
ATR × 2 chandelier+178.7%+22.8%0.90−37.9%0.6048%64%
ATR × 3 chandelier+455.5%+41.1%1.31−29.9%1.3765%36%

What basket size would have changed

Same rule, same anchors — only the number of names held changes.

VariantCum. returnCAGRSharpeMax DDCalmarWin rate
Top 5+377.2%+36.8%1.04−53.6%0.6963%
Top 10+386.5%+37.4%1.10−47.8%0.7865%
Top 15· shown above+354.9%+35.5%1.07−47.5%0.7565%
Top 20+354.9%+35.5%1.07−47.5%0.7565%
Top 25+354.9%+35.5%1.07−47.5%0.7565%

Top Quartile is a demanding screen — the natural qualifying count averages 6names a month, so a cap above roughly that size rarely binds; identical rows above mean the cap simply isn’t the constraint in most months.

Read the fine print
  • Not investment advice. A computation from historical, point-in-time data — shown to illustrate how the rule would have behaved. The future isn’t obligated to rhyme.
  • Gross of costs. No commissions, spreads, or taxes; the basket turns over roughly 86% of its names at each rebalance, so real-world friction would dent these figures.
  • The ATR stop is an approximation. It uses each stock’s ATR% as measured on entry day, held fixed through the holding window (not re-measured daily), and doesn’t model reinvesting stopped-out capital until the next rebalance.
  • Rebalanced at ~monthly anchors (≈28-day spacing), holding from one anchor to the next; a window with no qualifying names parks in SHY (short treasuries). Returns use split-adjusted closes; a name that delists mid-window is marked at its last trade.
Backtest through May 29, 2026 · Current basket locked May 29, 2026