Cluster Rotation

Which market clusters are leading vs lagging the S&P 500

Updated August 28, 2026

Each row is one of the 25 co-movement clusters — groups of stocks and ETFs that historically move together. The columns show how each cluster has performed vs SPY over the last 4 weeks, 13 weeks, and full year (excess return in percentage points), plus a 13-week sparkline of that running excess. Sorted by 4-week excess, so the current leaders are at the top.

The sparkline is the story: a steady climb means consistent weekly beats vs SPY; a bend in the curve is where leadership changed. A cluster with a negative 4W reading but an upward-curving sparkline is closing its gap — the early rotation signal.

Cluster	4W vs SPY	13W vs SPY	1Y vs SPY	Perform
Media & cable	+11.8pp	+9.1pp	−12.4pp	33
Cable, broadcast and media networks.
Software / cloud	+8.5pp	+8.8pp	−9.3pp	41
Enterprise software and cloud — the long-duration growth engine.
Miners / metals	+6.7pp	−0.7pp	+22.1pp	73
Metals, mining and materials — the hard-asset cycle.
IT services	+5.3pp	+7.8pp	−23.5pp	25
IT services, consulting and outsourcing.
Data & analytics	+4.6pp	+6.3pp	−27.9pp	28
Ratings, indices and financial-data franchises.
Health care	+4.4pp	+17.7pp	+5.9pp	60
Tools, biotech and large-cap pharma — defensive growth.
Spec growth	+4.0pp	−3.9pp	−12.9pp	44
High-beta growth, fintech and disruption — the risk-on extreme.
Energy	+1.9pp	+7.9pp	+21.1pp	77
Oil & gas producers and services — the commodity-price trade.
Semis & hardware	−0.0pp	−8.7pp	+69.7pp	76
Chipmakers and the gear that builds them — the AI-cycle epicentre.
Thematic ETFs	−0.6pp	−8.9pp	−6.6pp	49
Clean-energy, niche-theme and preferred-income ETFs.
Banks	−1.3pp	+10.8pp	−1.0pp	58
Regional and money-center banks — the rate-and-credit trade.
Staples / low-vol	−1.4pp	+1.9pp	−14.7pp	40
Consumer staples and low-vol dividend payers — the bond proxy.
Homebuilders	−1.5pp	+0.2pp	−38.3pp	16
Homebuilders and building products — the housing-rate trade.
Payments & fintech	−1.6pp	+10.3pp	−33.5pp	30
Card networks and payment processors.
Aerospace-defense	−2.2pp	+5.6pp	−7.7pp	45
Defense primes and steady-demand contractors.
Int'l (ex-US)	−2.4pp	−2.2pp	−6.7pp	53
Foreign and emerging-market equity — the weak-dollar trade.
Industrials / SMID	−2.6pp	+2.9pp	−1.1pp	55
Broad industrial and small/mid-cap cyclicals — the economy beta.
Cash & short duration	−2.7pp	−1.5pp	−19.9pp	33
T-bill and ultra-short / floating-rate funds.
Bonds / fixed income	−3.2pp	−3.8pp	−22.7pp	27
Bond ETFs — the pure duration and credit sleeve.
Insurance	−3.4pp	+14.8pp	−14.3pp	40
Property-casualty and life insurers — the steady financials.
Retail	−3.4pp	−1.2pp	−15.5pp	42
Consumer-discretionary retail — the spending-cycle book.
REITs / real estate	−4.7pp	−0.8pp	−16.3pp	38
Equity REITs — the property and rate-duration trade.
Travel & leisure	−5.4pp	+1.1pp	−10.4pp	44
Airlines, hotels, cruises and casinos — the reopening trade.
Utilities	−6.6pp	−4.2pp	−14.1pp	42
Regulated power and water — the rate-sensitive defensive.
Electrification	−8.2pp	−12.3pp	+3.9pp	56
Power, grid and data-center build-out — the AI-capex spillover.

Excess returns = cluster equal-weight index minus SPY, both rebased to 100 at the start of each window. Sparkline: 13-week running excess vs SPY, rebased to 0 at week −13 — slope = trend strength, a bend = regime change. Clustering window: trailing 5y. Series built August 28, 2026. Perform score is the cluster average marketBeat1Y from the live universe (— for ETF clusters).