Cluster Rotation

Which market clusters are leading vs lagging the S&P 500

Updated October 9, 2026

Each row is one of the 25 co-movement clusters — groups of stocks and ETFs that historically move together. The columns show how each cluster has performed vs SPY over the last 4 weeks, 13 weeks, and full year (excess return in percentage points), plus a 13-week sparkline of that running excess. Sorted by 4-week excess, so the current leaders are at the top.

The sparkline is the story: a steady climb means consistent weekly beats vs SPY; a bend in the curve is where leadership changed. A cluster with a negative 4W reading but an upward-curving sparkline is closing its gap — the early rotation signal.

Cluster	4W vs SPY	13W vs SPY	1Y vs SPY	Perform
Software / cloud	+6.4pp	+15.2pp	−8.0pp	46
Enterprise software and cloud — the long-duration growth engine.
Semis & hardware	+3.5pp	−0.3pp	+67.3pp	79
Chipmakers and the gear that builds them — the AI-cycle epicentre.
Health care	+1.8pp	+6.0pp	+4.5pp	61
Tools, biotech and large-cap pharma — defensive growth.
Retail	−0.7pp	−3.9pp	−12.2pp	46
Consumer-discretionary retail — the spending-cycle book.
IT services	−1.1pp	+13.0pp	−23.1pp	25
IT services, consulting and outsourcing.
Electrification	−1.4pp	−9.9pp	+0.6pp	56
Power, grid and data-center build-out — the AI-capex spillover.
Cash & short duration	−2.1pp	−3.2pp	−19.8pp	40
T-bill and ultra-short / floating-rate funds.
Spec growth	−2.4pp	−5.0pp	−23.6pp	35
High-beta growth, fintech and disruption — the risk-on extreme.
Data & analytics	−3.4pp	−1.2pp	−29.7pp	35
Ratings, indices and financial-data franchises.
Energy	−3.4pp	+9.2pp	+29.4pp	78
Oil & gas producers and services — the commodity-price trade.
Bonds / fixed income	−3.5pp	−7.3pp	−26.4pp	29
Bond ETFs — the pure duration and credit sleeve.
Industrials / SMID	−3.5pp	−7.8pp	−2.9pp	57
Broad industrial and small/mid-cap cyclicals — the economy beta.
Utilities	−3.9pp	−13.2pp	−23.0pp	33
Regulated power and water — the rate-sensitive defensive.
Int'l (ex-US)	−3.9pp	−5.3pp	−13.1pp	49
Foreign and emerging-market equity — the weak-dollar trade.
Travel & leisure	−4.1pp	−12.3pp	−9.3pp	50
Airlines, hotels, cruises and casinos — the reopening trade.
Aerospace-defense	−4.2pp	−8.0pp	−17.7pp	39
Defense primes and steady-demand contractors.
Thematic ETFs	−4.4pp	−7.2pp	−12.8pp	42
Clean-energy, niche-theme and preferred-income ETFs.
Staples / low-vol	−4.7pp	−6.9pp	−18.3pp	45
Consumer staples and low-vol dividend payers — the bond proxy.
Payments & fintech	−4.9pp	+1.6pp	−33.1pp	33
Card networks and payment processors.
Insurance	−5.0pp	−8.2pp	−21.8pp	37
Property-casualty and life insurers — the steady financials.
Homebuilders	−6.7pp	−17.8pp	−40.7pp	19
Homebuilders and building products — the housing-rate trade.
REITs / real estate	−6.9pp	−12.0pp	−20.3pp	38
Equity REITs — the property and rate-duration trade.
Media & cable	−8.9pp	−1.3pp	−27.0pp	35
Cable, broadcast and media networks.
Banks	−9.6pp	−9.5pp	−4.4pp	56
Regional and money-center banks — the rate-and-credit trade.
Miners / metals	−10.2pp	−1.3pp	+6.0pp	64
Metals, mining and materials — the hard-asset cycle.

Excess returns = cluster equal-weight index minus SPY, both rebased to 100 at the start of each window. Sparkline: 13-week running excess vs SPY, rebased to 0 at week −13 — slope = trend strength, a bend = regime change. Clustering window: trailing 5y. Series built October 9, 2026. Perform score is the cluster average marketBeat1Y from the live universe (— for ETF clusters).