Cluster Rotation

Which market clusters are leading vs lagging the S&P 500

Updated July 10, 2026

Each row is one of the 25 co-movement clusters — groups of stocks and ETFs that historically move together. The columns show how each cluster has performed vs SPY over the last 4 weeks, 13 weeks, and full year (excess return in percentage points), plus a 13-week sparkline of that running excess. Sorted by 4-week excess, so the current leaders are at the top.

The sparkline is the story: a steady climb means consistent weekly beats vs SPY; a bend in the curve is where leadership changed. A cluster with a negative 4W reading but an upward-curving sparkline is closing its gap — the early rotation signal.

Cluster	4W vs SPY	13W vs SPY	1Y vs SPY	Perform
Insurance	+9.4pp	+1.6pp	−12.0pp	44
Property-casualty and life insurers — the steady financials.
Health care	+8.1pp	−0.6pp	−1.4pp	53
Tools, biotech and large-cap pharma — defensive growth.
Payments & fintech	+6.3pp	−2.3pp	−42.8pp	17
Card networks and payment processors.
Spec growth	+3.7pp	+4.2pp	−8.7pp	49
High-beta growth, fintech and disruption — the risk-on extreme.
Software / cloud	+2.9pp	+16.8pp	−23.8pp	33
Enterprise software and cloud — the long-duration growth engine.
Banks	+2.9pp	+5.0pp	+1.1pp	58
Regional and money-center banks — the rate-and-credit trade.
Utilities	+2.7pp	−10.7pp	−2.0pp	58
Regulated power and water — the rate-sensitive defensive.
Homebuilders	+2.5pp	−7.1pp	−26.1pp	33
Homebuilders and building products — the housing-rate trade.
Aerospace-defense	+1.7pp	−2.9pp	−4.0pp	49
Defense primes and steady-demand contractors.
Data & analytics	+1.1pp	−5.6pp	−37.1pp	21
Ratings, indices and financial-data franchises.
Industrials / SMID	+0.9pp	−4.3pp	−0.9pp	54
Broad industrial and small/mid-cap cyclicals — the economy beta.
Travel & leisure	+0.7pp	+0.7pp	−2.4pp	53
Airlines, hotels, cruises and casinos — the reopening trade.
Staples / low-vol	−0.7pp	−7.0pp	−13.5pp	38
Consumer staples and low-vol dividend payers — the bond proxy.
Cash & short duration	−0.9pp	−10.0pp	−20.7pp	30
T-bill and ultra-short / floating-rate funds.
REITs / real estate	−1.3pp	−3.1pp	−13.9pp	41
Equity REITs — the property and rate-duration trade.
Bonds / fixed income	−1.5pp	−11.5pp	−20.8pp	29
Bond ETFs — the pure duration and credit sleeve.
IT services	−1.5pp	−12.9pp	−42.3pp	23
IT services, consulting and outsourcing.
Electrification	−1.6pp	−5.2pp	+21.3pp	65
Power, grid and data-center build-out — the AI-capex spillover.
Int'l (ex-US)	−2.9pp	−9.0pp	−5.4pp	53
Foreign and emerging-market equity — the weak-dollar trade.
Media & cable	−3.9pp	−17.3pp	−26.8pp	27
Cable, broadcast and media networks.
Retail	−4.5pp	−11.1pp	−12.9pp	46
Consumer-discretionary retail — the spending-cycle book.
Energy	−4.7pp	−13.1pp	+6.1pp	65
Oil & gas producers and services — the commodity-price trade.
Thematic ETFs	−4.9pp	−10.3pp	+3.8pp	54
Clean-energy, niche-theme and preferred-income ETFs.
Semis & hardware	−7.3pp	+17.3pp	+79.5pp	79
Chipmakers and the gear that builds them — the AI-cycle epicentre.
Miners / metals	−8.4pp	−18.5pp	+10.9pp	64
Metals, mining and materials — the hard-asset cycle.

Excess returns = cluster equal-weight index minus SPY, both rebased to 100 at the start of each window. Sparkline: 13-week running excess vs SPY, rebased to 0 at week −13 — slope = trend strength, a bend = regime change. Clustering window: trailing 5y. Series built July 7, 2026. Perform score is the cluster average marketBeat1Y from the live universe (— for ETF clusters).